GBP/USD continues to climb ahead of another key double-header data dump
- GBP/USD made firms gains on Wednesday as Greenback flows recede further.
- Cable traders are finding their risk appetite ahead of key UK and US data.
- UK quarterly GDP and US PPI inflation data dumps due on Thursday.
GBP/USD gained even more ground on Wednesday, climbing nearly six-tenths of one percent as US Dollar (USD) flows continues to wither. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is enjoying a much-needed bullish shift in fundamentals as United Kingdom (UK) economic data outpaces new soft spots appearing in key economic figures from the United States (US).
GBP/USD is extending one-sided bullish momentum north of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), climbing into 1.3600 after closing flat or higher for all but one of the last nine trading sessions. Cable has risen over 3.35% bottom-to-top after finding a technical floor near the 200-day EMA near 1.3150, but could be poised to run out of bullish momentum near the last swing high.
UK growth, US producer-level inflation on the docket
After a lull in the economic data docket on Wednesday, key data releases are now on the radar for Thursday. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter will be releasing first, and are expected to show a general slowdown in UK economic growth. UK Industrial and Manufacturing figures from June are also expected to recover from a dip early in the second quarter, but the backdated data is unlikely to drive much market momentum.
On the US side, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for July will be released later on Thursday. Producer prices tend to entirely exclude imported goods and services, so tariff impacts on PPI inflation should remain muted in the near term.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.