India: FY2022 growth forecast seen lower by 100 bps to 10% – Barclays

In the view of Barclay’s Chief India Economist Rahul Bajoria, India’s GDP growth forecast is subject to downward revision this fiscal year amid rising losses amid localized restrictions, slow vaccination.  

Key quotes

“After factoring in recent developments and new restrictions, we now estimate that the economic cost of the latest shutdowns has increased from USD1.25bn per week, to around USD3.5bn from mid-April.”

“Expect restriction to remain in place until June, as India continues to report over 350,000 fresh cases, around 3,500 fatalities per day. “

“India's manufacturing activity has remained broadly unaffected, and the government, both union and states, are working to ensure that the economic impact is minimized. This is why, despite increasing our estimates of potential economic losses, we believe the impact this time will be nowhere close to what the economic hit was in 2020.”